Tag

capital structure

17 insights

A single stacked bar showing platform deal debt at 3.5 times EBITDA in Q1 2026, split between 2.3 times of senior debt and 1.2 times of junior capital, with a marker showing that senior debt alone reached 2.9 times in 2021.

The Debt Came Back. The Senior Debt Did Not.

Acquisition leverage has recovered to roughly where it stood at the 2021 peak. On platform deals the senior layer has not, and the gap was filled by junior capital, which is not the pool most buyers approach first.
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A single stacked bar of the all-in annual cost of an $8.0 million asset-based facility at a $6.0 million average draw, totalling $554,500, with a marker showing that a competing facility quoted 75 basis points higher costs $505,500 all-in.

The Rate Is on Page One. The Running Cost Is on Page Forty.

Two facilities quoted 75 basis points apart. Once field exams, appraisals, collateral monitoring and the finance team's own hours are counted, the cheaper-looking one costs 82 basis points more to run. The gap reverses entirely.
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A single large figure of $6.3 million of borrowing capacity available against an owner-occupied manufacturing plant at a 70 percent loan to value, set against the $3.2 million depreciated book value the balance sheet carries and a $9.0 million market value.

You Own the Plant. You Have Never Borrowed Against It.

A manufacturer finances equipment and receivables while its largest asset sits untouched, carried at a depreciated book value that hides what it is worth. Two routes convert it to cash, and only one of them is a loan.
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Three columns comparing covenant runway granted in 2026 amendments by three United States public companies: about five months for an automotive retailer, twenty-four months for an energy services company, and thirty-five months for a specialty chemicals company.

Relief Was Granted Every Time. It Ran Five Months, or Thirty-Five.

Three United States public companies disclosed covenant amendments in 2026. Every creditor group said yes. One got a conditional bridge of a few months, another two years, a third nearly three. The breach severity is not what separated them.
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Two proportional circles comparing commercial and industrial loan balances of $2,921.6 billion, which contracted 1.1 percent annualized in July, against lending to non-depository financial institutions of $2,016.1 billion, up 20.4 percent on the year.

Direct Lending Contracted. The Capital Did Not Leave.

July brought the first contraction in commercial and industrial balances all year, at minus 1.1 percent annualized. Over the same stretch, lending to non-bank financial institutions reached $2,016.1 billion, up 20.4 percent.
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Shaded grid of the annual interest cost of a rate move across three floating balances: a 25 basis point move costs $25,000 on $10 million, $50,000 on $20 million and $125,000 on $50 million, and a 50 basis point move costs $50,000, $100,000 and $250,000 respectively.

Inflation Cooled. A Hike Is Still a 42 Percent Bet.

July CPI came in exactly as forecast, both measures eased, and Treasury yields fell across the board. Futures still priced a 42 percent chance of a September hike. What that asymmetry is worth on a floating balance.
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Column chart showing three borrowing capacity readings for the same distributor: $4.6 million on a cash flow reading, $6.7 million on an asset reading, and $8.2 million on a blended reading shown in the darkest navy, against a $6 million financing need.

One Balance Sheet. Three Different Answers.

A distributor doing $40 million in revenue needs $6 million. Read against cash flow it is short. Read against its assets it clears. Read as a blend it borrows $8.2 million. Same company, same week, three answers.
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Dumbbell chart contrasting the Federal Reserve's 2 percent inflation target with June 2026 core PCE at 3.3 percent, a gap of 1.3 points, with the 3.3 percent marker shown in navy.

Core Inflation Is Stuck at 3.3 Percent. Your Hurdle Rate Should Be Too.

June core PCE held at 3.3 percent, still above the Fed's 2 percent target, while the policy rate stayed at 3.50 to 3.75 percent. Why a capital plan priced to a 2 percent world mismatches the cost of capital lenders are quoting today.
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Bar chart of June 2026 durable goods month-over-month change: headline +0.3%, ex-transportation +0.6%, core capital goods orders +0.9%, core capital goods shipments +1.9%, showing strong core business equipment activity.

The Equipment Is Already Shipping. The Financing Decision Should Not Lag It.

Core business-equipment shipments rose 1.9% in June and equipment-finance approvals sit near record highs. For manufacturers, the constraint is no longer approval. It is how the financing is structured against the asset.
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Squares pictogram showing 80 of 100 filled, representing the top of the 70 to 80 percent advance-rate band on eligible accounts receivable under a borrowing-base formula, with the 65 percent eligible inventory ceiling shown alongside.

You Are Buying a Balance Sheet and Financing It Like a Cash Flow Statement

Two facilities priced 200 to 250 basis points apart in the same week. The difference was collateral, not credit. Why acquisition debt sized only on EBITDA leaves both pricing and capacity on the table.
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Contrast chart showing a higher-grade revolver priced at 175 to 275 basis points over SOFR against a collateral-heavy asset-based revolver at 425 basis points, both priced off the same 3.50% to 3.75% funds rate.

Same Week, Same Base Rate, 250 Basis Points Apart

Two revolvers priced in the same week of July 2026 carried spreads 150 to 250 basis points apart on an identical base rate. The difference was credit tier, and tier is something a borrower can change.
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Waffle chart of 100 squares showing more than 70% of Q2 2026 venture capital going to AI-focused companies, up from under 50% a year earlier, with 43% of all H1 2026 funding taken by two AI companies and $293B left for every other company.

The Record Funding Year Is Not Funding You

Venture funding hit a record $510B in H1 2026, but 43% went to two AI companies. Why recurring-revenue tech founders are misreading the headline, and the non-dilutive alternative.
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Dot plot of June 2026 factory index components showing headline PMI at 53.3 above the 50 line while employment sits at 49.7 in contraction and input prices at 73.0 remain elevated.

Expansion On Paper. A Squeeze Underneath.

A factory index above 50 reads as a growth signal, but hiring is still contracting and input costs are still high. Why financing sized to the headline misreads a margin story as a volume story.
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Horizontal stacked bar showing about $1.4T of idle U.S. acquisition capital, split into $1.13T PE dry powder and $264B private-credit dry powder, against a −52% drop in June 2026 deal deployment versus January.

Capital Is Not Scarce. It Is Just Not Moving.

U.S. acquisition capital sits near record levels while deal volume has fallen by half. The binding constraint for buyers now is structure and matching, not availability.
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Filled area trend chart showing the equipment finance industry monthly confidence index climbing from 54.6 in April 2026 to 59.9 in May to 63.7 in June.

Paying Cash for Equipment Is Not the Conservative Move. It Is the Expensive One.

Capex demand is rising into a working capital squeeze. Why paying cash for equipment is the expensive move, and how layering the structure preserves the liquidity growth consumes.
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Horizontal bar chart of Q1 2026 middle-market spread moves of 25, 67, and 200 basis points by credit profile.

Lowest Rate, Worst Deal: Why Structure Beats Spread in This Credit Market

The cheapest quoted rate is rarely the lowest cost of capital. With Q1 2026 spreads ranging 25 to 200 bp, structure, not headline spread, decides what a facility actually costs.
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Bar chart of U.S. Treasury yields by maturity in mid-June 2026 showing the 2-year at 4.05 percent, 10-year at 4.5 percent, and 30-year at 4.95 percent

The 10-Year Just Hit a One-Year High. Waiting for Lower Fixed Rates Is Now a Bet Against the Curve.

The 10-year Treasury hit a one-year high while markets price the Fed to hold or hike. Why waiting for lower fixed rates is now a bet against the curve, and how to decide structure first.
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