cap table

Private shares trade below the last round price, and how far below depends on when that round was priced. A 2021 mark trades around 60 percent under. A 2025 mark trades around 1 percent under. What that costs an early holder.

The median interval from seed to Series A has stretched to roughly 2.2 years. A company that closed with 18 months of cash is eight months short before it does anything wrong. What the decision looks like at month 10 against month 16.

A 2026 Series A takes 18 to 22% of the company at a reset valuation. For a recurring-revenue business that already clears the revenue bar, that dilution is a choice, not a requirement.

Two software companies at the same $6M ARR can be priced two turns of revenue apart on category narrative alone. Here is what that gap costs in dilution, and the non-dilutive debt alternative.