Thalos Capital Research

Insights

Commercial finance analysis and practical guidance, equipment, working capital, asset-based lending, and strategic debt, for business owners, executives, and finance leaders across the United States and Canada.

Slope chart comparing gross revenue retention for private B2B SaaS between the prior period and 2026, showing the median falling from 88 percent to 84 percent and the 75th percentile falling from 95 percent to 91 percent, both lines down four points.

Retention Fell Four Points. Your Borrowing Capacity Followed.

Median gross revenue retention for private B2B SaaS fell from 88 to 84 percent in 2026, and the top quartile fell just as far. For a company planning to borrow against contracted revenue, that four point move is a borrowing base question.

Capital Markets & Trends Borrower Advisory

Dumbbell chart contrasting the Federal Reserve's 2 percent inflation target with June 2026 core PCE at 3.3 percent, a gap of 1.3 points, with the 3.3 percent marker shown in navy.

Core Inflation Is Stuck at 3.3 Percent. Your Hurdle Rate Should Be Too.

June core PCE held at 3.3 percent, still above the Fed's 2 percent target, while the policy rate stayed at 3.50 to 3.75 percent. Why a capital plan priced to a 2 percent world mismatches the cost of capital lenders are quoting today.

Capital Markets & Trends Borrower Advisory

Bar chart of June 2026 durable goods month-over-month change: headline +0.3%, ex-transportation +0.6%, core capital goods orders +0.9%, core capital goods shipments +1.9%, showing strong core business equipment activity.

The Equipment Is Already Shipping. The Financing Decision Should Not Lag It.

Core business-equipment shipments rose 1.9% in June and equipment-finance approvals sit near record highs. For manufacturers, the constraint is no longer approval. It is how the financing is structured against the asset.

Borrower Advisory Business Case & ROI

Cover showing Q2 2026 middle-market direct-lending volume of $33.6 billion, the lowest since Q2 2023, beside a stacked bar of a bank facility's $1.6 billion committed capacity plus a $1.0 billion accordion to $2.6 billion.

The Direct-Lending Slowdown Is a Buyer's Financing Window

Middle-market direct lending hit its lowest quarter since 2023 while bank and asset-based capacity expanded. Why the buyers who run a multi-source process capture the leverage.

Capital Markets & Trends Borrower Advisory

Stacked bar showing single-family offices at 65 percent of NAV loan demand, ahead of general partners, UHNW individuals, and multi-family offices.

Family Offices Now Lead Demand for Portfolio-Backed Credit, and They Are Borrowing to Acquire

Single-family offices now drive 65% of NAV loan demand, and 85% of that borrowing funds acquisitions, not distributions. What the shift means for owners financing against a portfolio.

Capital Markets & Trends Borrower Advisory

Waffle grid of 100 squares with 20 shaded navy, showing the 18 to 22 percent equity a 2026 Series A takes versus 0 percent dilution on Recurring Revenue Debt.

The 20% You Give Up for Money You Could Borrow: The Series A Math Founders Skip

A 2026 Series A takes 18 to 22% of the company at a reset valuation. For a recurring-revenue business that already clears the revenue bar, that dilution is a choice, not a requirement.

Borrower Advisory Financing Strategy

A four stage renewal sequence running from 120 days before maturity to 30 days, ending with a note that 25 basis points on a $10 million facility is $25,000 a year.

Six Straight Quarters of Margin Expansion Went to the Lender. Your Renewal Did Not Reprice.

Regional lenders posted a sixth straight quarter of margin expansion. Borrower pricing does not move with it. What an untested 25 basis point renewal gap actually costs, and the 120 day sequence that changes it.

Borrower Advisory Financing Strategy

Trend line showing global AI infrastructure spending rising from $153B in 2024 to a forecast $497B in 2026 and $1.08T in 2029, with a callout that storage took 2.4 percent of Q1 2026 spending.

The Storage Refresh You Deferred Comes Due at 2026 Prices

Storage took 2.4% of Q1 2026 AI infrastructure spending. That deferral is expiring into a component market that has repriced every quarter. What it costs, and how to structure the refresh.

Borrower Advisory Business Case & ROI

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Commercial finance analysis and practical guidance for business owners, executives, and finance leaders across the United States and Canada.

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The Presses Are Paid Off. The Business Is Short of Cash.

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The Estate Tax Is Due in Nine Months. The Estate Is the Business.

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Your $4 Million of EBITDA Is $3.4 Million to the Lender

A trucking company is marketed at $4.0 million of adjusted EBITDA. The lender accepts $3.4 million, which cuts the debt available by $1.8 million and raises the equity the buyer has to write by the same amount, after the price is agreed.

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