Tag

credit conditions

2 insights

Dot plot of June 2026 factory index components showing headline PMI at 53.3 above the 50 line while employment sits at 49.7 in contraction and input prices at 73.0 remain elevated.

Expansion On Paper. A Squeeze Underneath.

A factory index above 50 reads as a growth signal, but hiring is still contracting and input costs are still high. Why financing sized to the headline misreads a margin story as a volume story.
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Bar chart showing the federal funds rate at 3.63% today, rising to an implied 3.8% by late 2026 and 4.0% by mid 2027, with no rate cut expected before 2027 according to futures pricing.

The Rate Cut Your Capital Plan Is Counting On Is Not Coming

The 2026 rate cuts your capital plan assumed are gone. The Fed is on hold, banks are tighter, and capital has shifted to private credit. How to structure financing for the rate environment that actually exists.
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